3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,121 sqft ·
Built 1963
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 181 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,544/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$996
Tax + insurance
−$263
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$324
Net cashflow
$-40/mo
Annual
$-479/yr
Cap rate
6.04%
Cash-on-cash
-0.90%
DSCR
0.96
1% rule
0.81%
Cash to close
$53,172
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-40 ($-479/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $183k (3.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (18.7% below list).
It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $154k (18.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#45 in NC, #4,031 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: College Lakes Elementary (math 20% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,410 statewide, top 82%, 459 students, 99% FRL); Spring Lake Middle (math 15% / reading 31%, grade F, #406 of 475 statewide, top 86%, 512 students, 99% FRL); Pine Forest High (math 73% / reading 51%, grade B-, #184 of 535 statewide, top 37%, 1,572 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 55% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 360 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $105k; list at $190k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.9% in Fayetteville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-AD0ADH8SQXN0RT
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29