2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
624 sqft ·
Built 1949
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 182 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$931/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$708
Tax + insurance
−$102
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$196
Net cashflow
$-74/mo
Annual
$-888/yr
Cap rate
5.64%
Cash-on-cash
-2.35%
DSCR
0.90
1% rule
0.69%
Cash to close
$37,800
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-888/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $122k (9.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $93k (31.0% below list).
It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $93k (31.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $14k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, crime F.
Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Atkinson Academy (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #648 of 676 statewide, top 98%, 327 students, 88% FRL); Westport Middle (math 16% / reading 38%, grade F, #172 of 217 statewide, top 80%, 1,177 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 56% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 141 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.5% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($36k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
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