158 Albemarle Dr

Williamsburg, VA 23185

$214,900D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,168 sqft · Built 1985 · Condo · Active · 103 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,823/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$176
• HOA: −$250
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $-113/mo
• Annual: $-1,352/yr
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.25%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $60,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-113 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (9.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (15.2% below list).
• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $182k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#31 in VA, #734 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 390 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 358 units permitted in James City County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• James City County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.1% in Williamsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?