424 Lake Ave

Lake Luzerne, NY 12846

$300,000B-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,016 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,589/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$382
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$754
• Net cashflow: $880/mo
• Annual: $10,557/yr
• Cap rate: 9.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.57%
• DSCR: 1.56
• 1% rule: 1.20%
• Cash to close: $84,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $880 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $300k).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#682 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Hadley-Luzerne Central School District (rural): math 41% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #396 of 590 in NY (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hadley-Luzerne Junior-Senior High School (math 62% / reading 67%, grade B-, #776 of 1,100 statewide, top 73%, 304 students, 54% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 49% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Hadley-Luzerne Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Warren County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 7.0% in Lake Luzerne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.