417 Fawn Run

Kenyon, MN 55946

$269,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,380 sqft · Built 2023 · Townhouse · Active · 58 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,800/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax + insurance: −$278
• HOA: −$230
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $-496/mo
• Annual: $-5,957/yr
• Cap rate: 4.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.91%
• DSCR: 0.65
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $75,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $269k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-496 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $181k (32.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (33.1% below list).
• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $180k (33.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#172 in MN, #3,700 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Kenyon-Wanamingo School District (rural): math 34% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #230 of 301 in MN (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 86 units permitted in Goodhue County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Goodhue County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.