3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,792 sqft ·
Built 1976
· Manufactured
· Active
· 17 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,502/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$918
Tax + insurance
−$301
HOA
−$48
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$525
Net cashflow
$710/mo
Annual
$8,519/yr
Cap rate
11.16%
Cash-on-cash
17.39%
DSCR
1.77
1% rule
1.43%
Cash to close
$49,000
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $710 ($9k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $175k).
It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $172k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 58/100 on livability (#691 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-, crime B+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
Bret Harte Union High (town): math 35% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #429 of 1,400 in CA (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Market conditions: 235 active listings in the ZIP; 77 units permitted in Calaveras County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Calaveras County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
Current owner paid $93k; list at $175k implies a 88% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 2.0% in Copperopolis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-AG923Q50P5AX0V
· Data 46 min agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29