3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,500 sqft ·
Built 1990
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 21 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,899/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,439
Tax + insurance
−$637
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$819
Net cashflow
$5/mo
Annual
$55/yr
Cap rate
6.30%
Cash-on-cash
0.04%
DSCR
1.00
1% rule
0.84%
Cash to close
$130,200
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $465k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $5 ($55/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $390k (16.2% below list).
It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($458k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $390k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 73/100 on livability (#297 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Meadow Park Elementary School (math 64% / reading 73%, grade B+, #409 of 2,144 statewide, top 20%, 809 students, 65% FRL); Conniston Middle School (math 35% / reading 38%, grade F, #405 of 571 statewide, top 72%, 1,075 students, 74% FRL); Forest Hill Community High School (math 20% / reading 41%, grade F, #434 of 667 statewide, top 66%, 2,407 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 52% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 104 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 15400% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
Current owner paid $343k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $3,899/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($77k/yr) (locally 768% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-AGF7GY9HZG8XZA
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29