2048 Avalon Rdg

Conyers, GA 30013

$316,990D-

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,100 sqft · Built 2025 · Other · Pending · 146 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,222/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,662
• Tax + insurance: −$207
• HOA: −$4
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $-119/mo
• Annual: $-1,425/yr
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.61%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $88,757

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $317k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-119 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $296k (6.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (29.9% below list).
• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($279k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $222k (29.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#167 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities D, commute F.
• Rockdale County (suburban): math 14% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #136 of 174 in GA (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Hightower Trail Elementary School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #633 of 1,228 statewide, top 54%, 533 students, 81% FRL); Memorial Middle School (math 12% / reading 34%, grade F, #321 of 470 statewide, top 69%, 771 students, 79% FRL); Salem High School (math 2% / reading 15%, grade F, #375 of 424 statewide, top 88%, 1,120 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 60% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 377 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 483 units permitted in Rockdale County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Rockdale County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $75k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.4% in Conyers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?