Pike (Oakview) Plan

Carrollton, KY 41008

$54,995D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 546 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 321 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $768/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax + insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$385
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$161
• Net cashflow: $-158/mo
• Annual: $-1,902/yr
• Cap rate: 2.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.35%
• DSCR: 0.45
• 1% rule: 1.40%
• Cash to close: $15,399

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $55k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-158 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $32k (41.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($768 rent vs $55k).
• It's been on market 321 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $32k (41.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($380 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#129 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Carroll County (town): math 12% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #163 of 165 in KY (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 50% of rent.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carroll County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 321 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.