100 Winchester Dr #201

Lafayette, LA 70506

$103,000D

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,050 sqft · Built 1983 · Townhouse · Active · 60 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,186/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$540
• Tax + insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$395
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $-123/mo
• Annual: $-1,471/yr
• Cap rate: 4.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.10%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 1.15%
• Cash to close: $28,840

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $103k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-123 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $81k (21.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $103k).
• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($100k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $81k (21.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $712 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#63 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, employment C-, crime F.
• Lafayette Parish (urban): math 38% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #19 of 98 in LA (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 33% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 404 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,585 units permitted in Lafayette Parish in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lafayette County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.