2121 SW Gene Rd

Bogue Chitto, MS 39601

$149,500F

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 476 sqft · Built 2015 · SingleFamily · Pending · 49 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $985/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$784
• Tax + insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$207
• Net cashflow: $-115/mo
• Annual: $-1,384/yr
• Cap rate: 5.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.31%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $41,860

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-115 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $129k (13.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $98k (34.1% below list).
• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $98k (34.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 45/100 on livability (#353 in MS) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lincoln County School District (rural): math 33% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #46 of 130 in MS (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 172 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lincoln County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask is 7% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.9% in Bogue Chitto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.