4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,330 sqft ·
Built 1975
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 73 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,302/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$328
Tax + insurance
−$104
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$273
Net cashflow
$597/mo
Annual
$7,161/yr
Cap rate
17.75%
Cash-on-cash
40.92%
DSCR
2.82
1% rule
2.08%
Cash to close
$17,500
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $62k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $597 ($7k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $62k).
It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $59k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $432 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 64/100 on livability (#158 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
Fayette County (rural): math 17% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #71 of 129 in AL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Fayette Elementary School (math 17% / reading 47%, grade F, #331 of 627 statewide, top 57%, 466 students, 75% FRL); Fayette Middle School (math 14% / reading 41%, grade F, #144 of 257 statewide, top 57%, 341 students, 76% FRL); Fayette County High School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #90 of 305 statewide, top 35%, 387 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 50% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP.
Fayette County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $50k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 17.8% vs local median 6.0% in Fayette — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
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· Data 11 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29