2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,075 sqft ·
Built 1988
· Condo
· Pending
· 211 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,269/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,778
Tax + insurance
−$670
HOA
−$706
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$896
Net cashflow
$219/mo
Annual
$2,630/yr
Cap rate
7.07%
Cash-on-cash
2.77%
DSCR
1.12
1% rule
1.26%
Cash to close
$94,920
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $339k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $219 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $339k).
It's been on market 211 days — a 12% lower offer ($298k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $298k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $2k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-525 appreciation (-0.1% local appreciation)).
Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Bay Point Elementary School (math 43% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,454 of 2,144 statewide, top 69%, 453 students, 78% FRL); Lakewood High School (math 27% / reading 44%, grade F, #367 of 667 statewide, top 57%, 915 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 48% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pinellas average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: 285 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
4 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $195k; list at $339k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 2.6% in St. Petersburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $4,269/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($103k/yr) (locally 106% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 211 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
CashFlowRE · CFR-AJ0KCP51P7MZWA
· Data 5 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29