2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
992 sqft ·
Built 1930
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 239 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,031/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$257
Tax + insurance
−$82
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$217
Net cashflow
$476/mo
Annual
$5,712/yr
Cap rate
17.95%
Cash-on-cash
41.63%
DSCR
2.85
1% rule
2.10%
Cash to close
$13,720
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $49k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $476 ($6k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $49k).
It's been on market 239 days — a 12% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $43k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $339 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 67/100 on livability (#78 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools F, crime F.
Birmingham City (urban): math 4% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #116 of 129 in AL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.2%/yr); 122 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.2% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 17.9% vs local median 6.2% in Birmingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($39k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 239 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: kitchen cabinets
— severely outdated and worn
Major: kitchen countertops
— worn and in need of replacement
Major: bathroom fixtures
— outdated and in need of replacement
Minor: paint
— peeling in some areas
CashFlowRE · CFR-AJ40CM5CT93549
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29