415 E Dean St Unit 44abc Weeks 51/52

Aspen, CO 81611

$775,000B

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,120 sqft · Built 2005 · Condo · Active · 457 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $9,010/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,064
• Tax + insurance: −$1,292
• HOA: −$2
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,892
• Net cashflow: $1,760/mo
• Annual: $21,117/yr
• Cap rate: 9.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.73%
• DSCR: 1.43
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $217,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $775k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($21k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($9k rent vs $775k).
• It's been on market 457 days — a 12% lower offer ($682k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $682k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $83k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $78k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#142 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Aspen School District No. 1 In The County Of Pitkin And Sta (rural): math 36% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #18 of 86 in CO (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+22.1%/yr); 324 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 145 units permitted in Pitkin County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pitkin County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $217k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$133k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $9,010/mo this rent would consume 131% of the median local household income ($83k/yr) (locally 566% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 457 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.