814 Saint James St

Marysville, MI 48040

$209,000F

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,126 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Pending · 168 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,562/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax + insurance: −$506
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $-368/mo
• Annual: $-4,415/yr
• Cap rate: 4.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.54%
• DSCR: 0.66
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $58,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $209k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-368 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $144k (31.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (25.3% below list).
• It's been on market 168 days — a 12% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $144k (31.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#114 in MI, #2,700 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, employment D+, health & safety D.
• Marysville Public Schools (suburban): math 42% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #115 of 540 in MI (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 232 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Clair County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 10 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 168 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.