Cali Plan

Fairview, GA 30741

$302,990D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,764 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 960 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,614/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,636
• Tax + insurance: −$520
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$549
• Net cashflow: $-91/mo
• Annual: $-1,096/yr
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.25%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $87,372

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $303k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-91 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $299k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $261k (13.7% below list).
• It's been on market 960 days — a 12% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $261k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#440 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Walker County (rural): math 25% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #114 of 174 in GA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 425 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 347 units permitted in Walker County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Walker County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.9% in Fairview — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• At $2,614/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($59k/yr) (locally 834% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 960 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.