5 bd · 2.5 ba ·
2,482 sqft ·
Built 2006
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 62 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,892/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,835
Tax + insurance
−$318
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$397
Net cashflow
$-659/mo
Annual
$-7,902/yr
Cap rate
4.04%
Cash-on-cash
-8.06%
DSCR
0.64
1% rule
0.54%
Cash to close
$98,000
Investor read
This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $350k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-659 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (33.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (45.9% below list).
It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($329k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $189k (45.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#99 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Bryant Park Elementary (math 13% / reading 38%, grade F, #411 of 627 statewide, top 66%, 708 students, 62% FRL); North Jefferson Middle School (math 13% / reading 45%, grade F, #134 of 257 statewide, top 53%, 666 students, 52% FRL); Mortimer Jordan High School (math 23% / reading 27%, grade F, #114 of 305 statewide, top 38%, 861 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: 131 active listings in the ZIP; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $290k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-AJHPYSCJTB61NJ
· Data 11 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29