2809 E Hayes Ave

Alton, TX 78573

$565,000C-

None bd · None ba · 5,149 sqft · Built 2025 · MultiFamily · Active · 200 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,633/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,963
• Tax + insurance: −$942
• HOA: −$21
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,183
• Net cashflow: $524/mo
• Annual: $6,294/yr
• Cap rate: 7.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.98%
• DSCR: 1.18
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $158,200

Investor read

• This is a 3×3bd/2ba + 2×2bd/2ba units multifamily listed at $565k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $524 ($6k/yr) — positive. Per door: $105/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $563k (0.3% below list).
• It's been on market 200 days — a 12% lower offer ($497k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $497k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $60k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $56k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,230 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Mission CISD (urban): math 15% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #775 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 624 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $158k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$97k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 96% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.6% in Alton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,633/mo this rent would consume 123% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) (locally 855% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 200 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?