10301 Cedar Lake Rd #201

Minnetonka, MN 55305

$129,900D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,038 sqft · Built 1969 · Condo · Active · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,753/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax + insurance: −$277
• HOA: −$540
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $-113/mo
• Annual: $-1,360/yr
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.55%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 1.35%
• Cash to close: $36,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-113 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $110k (15.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $110k (15.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#187 in MN, #3,994 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Hopkins Public School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #75 of 301 in MN (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: L.H. Tanglen Elementary (math 42% / reading 56%, grade D, #475 of 857 statewide, top 56%, 559 students, 50% FRL); Hopkins North Junior High (math 42% / reading 61%, grade C, #65 of 258 statewide, top 26%, 888 students, 40% FRL); Hopkins Senior High (math 52% / reading 63%, grade C, #59 of 471 statewide, top 13%, 1,491 students, 40% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 31% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 123 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,651 units permitted in Hennepin County in 2024 (2,443 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hennepin County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 33y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.4% in Minnetonka — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?