2804 W Havasu Dr

San Tan Valley, AZ 85144

$414,900D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,794 sqft · Built 2020 · SingleFamily · Active · 118 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,239/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,176
• Tax + insurance: −$321
• HOA: −$158
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $-886/mo
• Annual: $-10,633/yr
• Cap rate: 3.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.15%
• DSCR: 0.59
• 1% rule: 0.54%
• Cash to close: $116,172

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $415k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-886 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (37.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (46.0% below list).
• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($378k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $224k (46.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $44k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $41k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#282 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Florence Unified School District (4437) (rural): math 16% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #178 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 489 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $268k; list at $415k implies a 55% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$71k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?