36 Whitemarsh Ct

Mystic Island, NJ 08087

$224,900C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 978 sqft · Built 1992 · SingleFamily · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,230/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax + insurance: −$375
• HOA: −$150
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $58/mo
• Annual: $694/yr
• Cap rate: 6.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.10%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $62,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $58 ($694/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (0.8% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $223k (0.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#455 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pinelands Regional School District (rural): math 14% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #344 of 472 in NJ (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Frog Pond Elementary School (math 14% / reading 33%, grade F, #921 of 1,303 statewide, top 71%, 771 students, 48% FRL); Pinelands Regional Jr. High School (math 10% / reading 48%, grade F, #321 of 431 statewide, top 77%, 520 students, 42% FRL); Pinelands Regional High School (math 21% / reading 41%, grade F, #277 of 399 statewide, top 70%, 1,069 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: 296 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 6 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $225k implies a 305% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.6% in Mystic Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.