2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,440 sqft ·
Built 1969
· Manufactured
· Active
· 227 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,923/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,468
Tax + insurance
−$467
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$824
Net cashflow
$1,164/mo
Annual
$13,971/yr
Cap rate
11.28%
Cash-on-cash
17.82%
DSCR
1.79
1% rule
1.40%
Cash to close
$78,400
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $280k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $280k).
It's been on market 227 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $246k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#132 in CA, #4,576 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
San Luis Coastal Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #118 of 517 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Pacheco Elementary (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #667 of 1,571 statewide, top 43%, 482 students, 36% FRL); Laguna Middle (math 57% / reading 65%, grade B+, #57 of 498 statewide, top 12%, 789 students, 30% FRL); San Luis Obispo High (math 47% / reading 67%, grade C, #234 of 1,170 statewide, top 21%, 1,644 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools at 31% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 140 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,104 units permitted in San Luis Obispo County in 2024 (273 in 5+ unit buildings).
San Luis Obispo County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.4% rent growth), your $78k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 2.1% in San Luis Obispo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $3,923/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($97k/yr) (locally 2050% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 227 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-AK4BYP77GW8MXS
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29