2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,625 sqft ·
Built 2012
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 47 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,566/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,495
Tax + insurance
−$628
HOA
−$420
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$539
Net cashflow
$-516/mo
Annual
$-6,195/yr
Cap rate
4.65%
Cash-on-cash
-5.88%
DSCR
0.74
1% rule
0.90%
Cash to close
$79,800
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-516 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (32.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (10.0% below list).
It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $194k (32.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 78/100 on livability (#168 in FL, #2,512 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Mill Creek Academy (math 73% / reading 69%, grade A-, #320 of 2,144 statewide, top 15%, 1,893 students, 18% FRL); Pacetti Bay Middle School (math 77% / reading 72%, grade A, #40 of 571 statewide, top 7%, 1,443 students, 18% FRL); Allen D Nease Senior High School (math 72% / reading 78%, grade A-, #40 of 667 statewide, top 6%, 2,214 students, 4% FRL).
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 1335 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).
St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $213k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.0% in World Golf Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-AK4NHM66P6BJGD
· Data 3 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29