3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,291 sqft ·
Built 2025
· Land
· Pending
· 118 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,052/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,358
Tax + insurance
−$243
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$431
Net cashflow
$20/mo
Annual
$245/yr
Cap rate
6.70%
Cash-on-cash
1.44%
DSCR
1.06
1% rule
0.79%
Cash to close
$72,492
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $259k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $20 ($245/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (20.8% below list).
It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $205k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 59/100 on livability (#826 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Veterans Park Academy For The Arts (math 41% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,366 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 2,133 students, 36% FRL); Oak Hammock Middle School (math 43% / reading 41%, grade D-, #340 of 571 statewide, top 61%, 1,563 students, 56% FRL); Lehigh Senior High School (math 23% / reading 45%, grade F, #394 of 667 statewide, top 60%, 2,476 students, 57% FRL).
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.7%/yr); 2481 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
6 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 13895% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
Current owner paid $16k; list at $259k implies a 1549% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $72k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-AKH3H70X6HK4ZT
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29