3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,351 sqft ·
Built 1950
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 242 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,194/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$524
Tax + insurance
−$166
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$251
Net cashflow
$253/mo
Annual
$3,036/yr
Cap rate
9.33%
Cash-on-cash
10.85%
DSCR
1.48
1% rule
1.20%
Cash to close
$27,972
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $253 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
It's been on market 242 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#196 in MI, #4,946 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
Carman-Ainsworth Community Schools (suburban): math 12% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #468 of 540 in MI (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 123 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
6 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (38%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 242 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-AMGTW2DMPP61HH
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29