9669 Spruce Mountain Rd

Larkspur, CO 80118

$100,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1 sqft · Built 1995 · Manufactured · Active · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,267/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$273
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $203/mo
• Annual: $2,435/yr
• Cap rate: 8.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.70%
• DSCR: 1.39
• 1% rule: 1.27%
• Cash to close: $28,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $203 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#144 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Douglas County School District No. RE-1 (suburban): math 45% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #7 of 86 in CO (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Larkspur Elementary School (math 34% / reading 54%, grade F, #277 of 966 statewide, top 31%, 205 students, 9% FRL); Castle Rock Middle School (math 30% / reading 49%, grade F, #84 of 270 statewide, top 32%, 748 students, 14% FRL); Castle View High School (math 38% / reading 67%, grade C-, #89 of 381 statewide, top 23%, 1,990 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 8% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Market conditions: 162 active listings in the ZIP; 3,131 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (950 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Douglas County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 19 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 0.8% in Larkspur — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.