12152 Trask #15

Garden Grove, CA 92843

$220,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1989 · Manufactured · Active Under Contract · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,127/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax + insurance: −$492
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$657
• Net cashflow: $825/mo
• Annual: $9,897/yr
• Cap rate: 11.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.51%
• DSCR: 1.82
• 1% rule: 1.42%
• Cash to close: $61,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $825 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $220k).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $213k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#343 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Garden Grove Unified (suburban): math 38% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #132 of 517 in CA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: James Monroe Elementary (568 students, 65% FRL); Leroy L. Doig Intermediate (558 students, 95% FRL); Santiago High (math 24% / reading 56%, grade F, #514 of 1,170 statewide, top 44%, 1,927 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 60% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 1.8% in Garden Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,127/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($81k/yr) (locally 1814% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.