12603 Telge Rd Unit 31 E-H

Houston, TX 77429

$829,900D

12 bd · 10.0 ba · 6,780 sqft · Built 2020 · MultiFamily · Active · 127 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,576/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,352
• Tax + insurance: −$1,383
• HOA: −$350
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,591
• Net cashflow: $-100/mo
• Annual: $-1,203/yr
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.52%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $232,372

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 3.0-bed/2.5-bath units multifamily listed at $830k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-100 ($-1k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-25/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $815k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $758k (8.7% below list).
• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($730k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $730k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $25k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lamkin El (math 31% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 893 students, 69% FRL); Arnold Middle (math 48% / reading 52%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 1,414 students, 67% FRL); Cypress-Fairbanks J J A E P (12 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 45% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 618 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $7,576/mo this rent would consume 76% of the median local household income ($119k/yr) (locally 1264% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?