4 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,240 sqft ·
Built 1972
· Townhouse
· Active
· 34 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,980/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,023
Tax + insurance
−$190
HOA
−$130
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$416
Net cashflow
$221/mo
Annual
$2,655/yr
Cap rate
7.65%
Cash-on-cash
4.86%
DSCR
1.22
1% rule
1.02%
Cash to close
$54,600
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $195k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $221 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $189k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 73/100 on livability (#118 in MD, #4,991 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, crime F.
Harford County Public Schools (suburban): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #9 of 24 in MD (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Old Post Road Elementary (math 7% / reading 9%, grade F, #674 of 860 statewide, top 79%, 842 students, 80% FRL); Edgewood Middle (math 7% / reading 31%, grade F, #155 of 225 statewide, top 70%, 999 students, 72% FRL); Edgewood High (math 43% / reading 54%, grade D, #111 of 222 statewide, top 50%, 1,415 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 24% district-wide (47 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 95 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 803 units permitted in Harford County in 2024 (26 in 5+ unit buildings).
2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $128k; list at $195k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 5.5% in Edgewood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
CashFlowRE · CFR-ANJD589NW6V5X5
· Data 15 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29