414 Clay St

Paris, IL 61944

$54,900B+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,173 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Active · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,071/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax + insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
• Net cashflow: $496/mo
• Annual: $5,954/yr
• Cap rate: 17.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.73%
• DSCR: 2.72
• 1% rule: 1.95%
• Cash to close: $15,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $496 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#342 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Paris-Union SD 95 (town): math 25% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #227 of 620 in IL (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Edgar County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Edgar County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $55k implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 17.1% vs local median 8.3% in Paris — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.