9803 Club Creek Dr #169

Houston, TX 77036

$84,000D-

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 980 sqft · Built 1983 · Condo · Pending · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $992/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$441
• Tax + insurance: −$249
• HOA: −$267
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $-173/mo
• Annual: $-2,075/yr
• Cap rate: 4.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.43%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 1.18%
• Cash to close: $23,520

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $84k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-173 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $53k (36.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($992 rent vs $84k).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($81k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $53k (36.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-0.7%/yr); year-one equity from $581 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $614 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Alief ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #717 of 826 in TX (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Best El (math 11% / reading 12%, grade F, #4,225 of 4,322 statewide, top 98%, 674 students, 92% FRL); Olle Middle (math 16% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,301 of 1,662 statewide, top 79%, 1,067 students, 90% FRL); Alief Isd J J A E P (13 students, 77% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 27% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-6.6%/yr); 202 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $84k implies a 222% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?