205 Cr 1820

Grapeland, TX 75844

$135,500D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,464 sqft · Built 1984 · Manufactured · Active · 249 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,074/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$711
• Tax + insurance: −$226
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
• Net cashflow: $-88/mo
• Annual: $-1,058/yr
• Cap rate: 5.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.79%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $37,940

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $136k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-88 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $123k (9.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (20.8% below list).
• It's been on market 249 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $107k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($937 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#427 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Latexo ISD (rural): math 37% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #365 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Latexo El (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 298 students, 60% FRL); Latexo H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 199 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 39% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Houston County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 1.0% in Grapeland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 249 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.