Mendelssohn E Plan

Valencia, PA 15044

$399,990F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,978 sqft · Built — · Townhouse · Active · 767 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,188/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,282
• Tax + insurance: −$725
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$669
• Net cashflow: $-488/mo
• Annual: $-5,859/yr
• Cap rate: 4.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.81%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $121,818

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $400k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-488 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $364k (8.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $319k (20.3% below list).
• It's been on market 767 days — a 12% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $319k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,667 in PA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-, crime B, cost of living B; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pine-Richland SD (suburban): math 62% / reading 83% proficiency, ranked #11 of 539 in PA (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 120 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,996 units permitted in Allegheny County in 2024 (1,588 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.0% in Valencia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 767 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.