3816 Porch Rock Rd

Pikeville, TN 37367

$269,000C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 2009 · SingleFamily · Pending · 445 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,499/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax + insurance: −$448
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $116/mo
• Annual: $1,387/yr
• Cap rate: 6.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.84%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $75,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $269k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $116 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (7.1% below list).
• It's been on market 445 days — a 12% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $237k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#296 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Bledsoe County (rural): math 19% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #104 of 139 in TN (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pikeville Elementary (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #423 of 952 statewide, top 48%, 415 students, 0% FRL); Bledsoe County Middle School (math 17% / reading 20%, grade F, #209 of 333 statewide, top 63%, 378 students, 0% FRL); Bledsoe County High School (math 2% / reading 32%, grade F, #215 of 332 statewide, top 67%, 483 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 69% district-wide (69 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 155 active listings in the ZIP.
• Bledsoe County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $75k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.8% in Pikeville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,499/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 445 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.