17111 S Country Club Rd #48

Sahuarita, AZ 85629

$135,000B-

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,560 sqft · Built 1998 · Manufactured · Active · 66 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,543/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax + insurance: −$225
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$534
• Net cashflow: $1,076/mo
• Annual: $12,916/yr
• Cap rate: 15.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.17%
• DSCR: 2.52
• 1% rule: 1.88%
• Cash to close: $37,800

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $135k).
• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $127k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#43 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sahuarita Unified District (4411) (town): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #63 of 249 in AZ (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 444 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 15.9% vs local median 3.8% in Sahuarita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: exterior cleaning — Significant dirt and debris around the property.
• Major: roof inspection — Aged roof suggests potential for replacement or repair.
• Major: flooring replacement — Manufactured home with potential for flooring replacement.
• Major: paint and interior updates — Exterior suggests potential for paint and interior updates.
• Major: window replacement — Exterior suggests potential for window replacement.
• Major: structural repairs — Manufactured home with potential for structural repairs.