TBD Cr 105a

Riesel, TX 76682

$79,900B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,386 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Active · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,369/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax + insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $529/mo
• Annual: $6,348/yr
• Cap rate: 14.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.38%
• DSCR: 2.26
• 1% rule: 1.71%
• Cash to close: $22,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $529 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($552 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#324 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Marlin ISD (town): math 21% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #779 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 84% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Falls County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Falls County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.