2030 Nelson Dr

Thief River Falls, MN 56701

$199,000D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · Built 2025 · Other · Pending · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,565/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$228
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $-35/mo
• Annual: $-426/yr
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.76%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-426/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (3.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (21.3% below list).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $157k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#219 in MN, #4,606 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Thief River Falls School District (town): math 39% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #201 of 301 in MN (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Pennington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pennington County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $199k implies a 398% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.