309 S Birch Ave

Erick, OK 73645

$17,000C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 957 sqft · Built 1925 · SingleFamily · Active · 108 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $870/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$89
• Tax + insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$183
• Net cashflow: $579/mo
• Annual: $6,944/yr
• Cap rate: 47.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 145.88%
• DSCR: 7.49
• 1% rule: 5.12%
• Cash to close: $4,760

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $17k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $579 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($870 rent vs $17k).
• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($15k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $15k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $896 of equity ($118 loan paydown + $778 appreciation (4.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#218 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Erick (rural): math 50% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #19 of 513 in OK (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Erick Es (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #23 of 845 statewide, top 3%, 152 students, 0% FRL); Erick Hs (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #150 of 447 statewide, top 48%, 57 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 44% district-wide (44 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 55% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Erick average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 16 units permitted in Beckham County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Beckham County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (4.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.