405 S Orion Ave

Clearwater, FL 33765

$775,000C+

16 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,463 sqft · Built 1955 · MultiFamily · Active · 136 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $8,713/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,064
• Tax + insurance: −$927
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,830
• Net cashflow: $1,892/mo
• Annual: $22,710/yr
• Cap rate: 9.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.47%
• DSCR: 1.47
• 1% rule: 1.12%
• Cash to close: $217,000

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 4-bed/4.0-bath units multifamily listed at $775k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($23k/yr) — positive. Per door: $473/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($9k rent vs $775k).
• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($682k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $682k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $23k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#60 in FL, #988 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, employment C-.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.6%/yr); 83 active listings in the ZIP; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 15 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $75k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $450k; list at $775k implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 2.9% in Clearwater — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $8,713/mo this rent would consume 151% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) (locally 604% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.