3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
952 sqft ·
Built 1934
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 74 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$904/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$655
Tax + insurance
−$83
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$190
Net cashflow
$-24/mo
Annual
$-283/yr
Cap rate
6.07%
Cash-on-cash
-0.81%
DSCR
0.96
1% rule
0.72%
Cash to close
$34,972
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-24 ($-283/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $121k (3.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $90k (27.6% below list).
It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $90k (27.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $5k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Lawrence County (rural): math 29% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #67 of 139 in TN (top 48%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: South Lawrence Elementary (math 34% / reading 30%, grade F, #369 of 952 statewide, top 42%, 540 students, 0% FRL); Loretto High School (math 8% / reading 32%, grade F, #183 of 332 statewide, top 59%, 493 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 50% district-wide (50 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Watch-outs: built in 1934 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lawrence County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $85k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1934 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-ASWK9Z3NR1PZ4Q
· Data 3 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29