3303 Knoll Dr

Ennis, TX 75119

$220,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,554 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Pending · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,111/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax + insurance: −$575
• HOA: −$42
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $-103/mo
• Annual: $-1,233/yr
• Cap rate: 5.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.00%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $61,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-103 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (8.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (4.0% below list).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $202k (8.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#304 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Ennis ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #411 of 826 in TX (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Travis El (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 260 students, 71% FRL); Ennis J H (math 41% / reading 44%, grade D-, #553 of 1,662 statewide, top 34%, 886 students, 69% FRL); Ennis H S (math 37% / reading 34%, grade F, #941 of 1,632 statewide, top 58%, 1,791 students, 64% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 364 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.5% in Ennis — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.