14 Villas Rd #103

Mount Pocono, PA 18344

$169,000C-

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,024 sqft · Built 1976 · Condo · Active · 123 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,846/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax + insurance: −$294
• HOA: −$255
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $23/mo
• Annual: $271/yr
• Cap rate: 6.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.26%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $47,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $169k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $23 ($271/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $149k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#362 in PA, #3,166 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, commute F.
• Pocono Mountain SD (rural): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #245 of 539 in PA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $138k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (0.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 5.0% in Mount Pocono — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?