403 Pinon St

Mountainair, NM 87036

$80,000A-

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,384 sqft · Built 1953 · SingleFamily · Active · 227 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,476/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax + insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $614/mo
• Annual: $7,363/yr
• Cap rate: 15.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.87%
• DSCR: 2.46
• 1% rule: 1.85%
• Cash to close: $22,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $80k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $614 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• It's been on market 227 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($553 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#188 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities C-, schools F, crime F.
• Mountainair Public Schools (rural): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #25 of 29 in NM (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP.
• Torrance County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 227 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: kitchen cabinets — dated and in poor condition
• Major: bathroom fixtures — dated and in poor condition
• Major: exterior siding — weathered and in poor condition
• Major: flooring — carpeted and in poor condition
• Major: interior walls/paint — dated paint and wallpaper
• Major: windows — old windows with peeling paint