Neptune End Home Plan

Port Saint Lucie, FL 34987

$324,990F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,632 sqft · Built — · Townhouse · Active · 261 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,737/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,934
• Tax + insurance: −$615
• HOA: −$200
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$575
• Net cashflow: $-587/mo
• Annual: $-7,049/yr
• Cap rate: 4.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.82%
• DSCR: 0.70
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $103,289

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $325k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-587 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $284k (12.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $274k (15.8% below list).
• It's been on market 261 days — a 12% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $274k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manatee Academy K-8 (math 53% / reading 51%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 1,664 students, 65% FRL); Southern Oaks Middle School (math 39% / reading 43%, grade F, #353 of 571 statewide, top 63%, 894 students, 76% FRL); Fort Pierce Central High School (math 15% / reading 45%, grade F, #441 of 667 statewide, top 67%, 3,091 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 1817 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 261 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.