205 Forest View Cir

Hayden, AL 35079

$83,000B-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,736 sqft · Built 2005 · Manufactured · Pending · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,606/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$435
• Tax + insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $781/mo
• Annual: $9,367/yr
• Cap rate: 17.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.31%
• DSCR: 2.79
• 1% rule: 1.94%
• Cash to close: $23,240

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $83k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $781 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $83k).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $574 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#137 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Blount County (rural): math 20% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #54 of 129 in AL (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hayden Primary School (566 students, 50% FRL); Hayden High School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #70 of 305 statewide, top 27%, 812 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Blount County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Blount County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 17.6% vs local median 4.3% in Hayden — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.