22899 Byron Rd #11

Crestline, CA 92325

$147,900B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built 2024 · Manufactured · Pending · 188 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,175/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$776
• Tax + insurance: −$372
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $571/mo
• Annual: $6,849/yr
• Cap rate: 11.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.17%
• DSCR: 1.90
• 1% rule: 1.47%
• Cash to close: $41,412

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $148k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $571 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $148k).
• It's been on market 188 days — a 12% lower offer ($130k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $130k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#805 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: commute D, crime F, amenities F.
• Rim Of The World Unified (town): math 13% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #415 of 517 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Valley of Enchantment Elementary (548 students, 67% FRL); Mary P. Henck Intermediate (math 13% / reading 36%, grade F, #277 of 498 statewide, top 73%, 585 students, 61% FRL); Rim of The World Senior High (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #950 of 1,170 statewide, top 82%, 917 students, 52% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 255 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $27k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.7% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 3.9% in Crestline — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 188 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.