416 3rd St

Greenport, NY 11944

$739,000F

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 2001 · SingleFamily · Pending · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,854/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,875
• Tax + insurance: −$1,287
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$809
• Net cashflow: $-2,118/mo
• Annual: $-25,414/yr
• Cap rate: 2.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.96%
• DSCR: 0.47
• 1% rule: 0.52%
• Cash to close: $206,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $739k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-25k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $433k (41.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $385k (47.8% below list).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($728k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $385k (47.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#217 in NY, #3,399 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, commute B+; Watch: housing C-, cost of living F.
• Greenport Union Free School District (town): math 55% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #450 of 755 in NY (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Greenport Elementary School (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 339 students, 61% FRL); Greenport High School (math 52% / reading 54%, grade C-, #934 of 1,100 statewide, top 86%, 356 students, 63% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: 69 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.