1809 Owen St

Louisville, KY 40203

$38,000B+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 762 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 349 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $944/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$199
• Tax + insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$198
• Net cashflow: $500/mo
• Annual: $6,005/yr
• Cap rate: 22.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.44%
• DSCR: 3.51
• 1% rule: 2.48%
• Cash to close: $10,640

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $38k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $500 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($944 rent vs $38k).
• It's been on market 349 days — a 12% lower offer ($33k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $33k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $263 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, schools D-.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 114 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 7 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $38k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 22.1% vs local median 5.0% in Louisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($31k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 349 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.