3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,028 sqft ·
Built 1892
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 15 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,996/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$784
Tax + insurance
−$316
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$419
Net cashflow
$477/mo
Annual
$5,727/yr
Cap rate
10.66%
Cash-on-cash
15.59%
DSCR
1.69
1% rule
1.34%
Cash to close
$41,860
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $477 ($6k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $147k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
Location reads 59/100 on livability (#471 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
Rockbridge County Public School District (town): math 43% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #80 of 131 in VA (top 61%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Natural Bridge Elementary (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #650 of 1,108 statewide, top 62%, 221 students, 68% FRL); Maury River Middle (math 38% / reading 63%, grade C, #226 of 342 statewide, top 67%, 502 students, 70% FRL); Rockbridge County High (math 52% / reading 82%, grade B, #185 of 319 statewide, top 61%, 994 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 37% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1892 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 85 units permitted in Rockbridge County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Rockbridge County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1892 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
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· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29